Preakness 150 preview: Journalism, Sovereignty, Rodriguez, Sandman & others face off.
Last updated : May 5 2025 (official post‑position draw happens Monday, May 12). Bookmark and check back for changes.
Quick‑Glance Race Facts
| Detail | Info |
| 150th running | Saturday, May 17 2025 |
| Distance | 1 3/16 miles (1.91 km) |
| Track | Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore (MD) |
| Post time (NBC) | ~ 6:50 p.m. ET |
| Purse | $2 million (winner gets $1.2 M) |
| Where to bet (legal states) | DraftKings • FanDuel • BetMGM • Caesars |
Why This Year Matters
- Triple‑Crown tension – Sovereignty arrives unbeaten after a gritty Kentucky Derby victory. A win here sets up an electric Belmont finale on June 7.
- Loaded new shooters – Only three Derby grads are expected; fresh colts like Rodriguez skipped Louisville and point here on purpose.
- 150‑year milestone – Expect Pimlico to roll out retro tributes, from vintage silks displays to $1.50 Black‑Eyed Susan cocktails.
Projected Field & Key Angles
| Horse | Trainer / Jockey | Early Odds* | Why They Can Win |
| Sovereignty | J. Baker / T. Gaffalione | 9⁄5 | Derby hero with versatile style; has won on a short two‑week turnaround before. |
| Journalism | K. McPeek / B. Hernández Jr. | 5⁄1 | Swooped late for Derby silver; smaller field & shorter trip could hit the target. |
| Rodriguez | B. Baffert / J. Velázquez | 6⁄1 | Physically skipped Derby (fever), but Baffert owns a record eight Preakness wins. |
| River Thames | T. Pletcher / I. Ortiz Jr. | 8⁄1 | Tactical stalker; Pletcher hasn’t won here since Rags to Riches (’07)—overdue. |
| Clever Again | S. Asmussen / J. Rosario | 12⁄1 | Lexington S. upsetter keeps improving speed figs every start. |
| Heart Of Honor | C. Brown / F. Prat | 14⁄1 | Closed for 5th in Derby despite widest trip; sharper break makes him dangerous. |
| Sandman | D. Romans / L. Saez | 18⁄1 | Freakish 7‑length Sir Barton win over this surface: “horse‑for‑course” angle. |
| Gosger | B. Russell / S. Russell | 25⁄1 | Tesio S. winner gives Maryland connections their best crack since Rombauer. |
| Caldera | S. Mussin / P. Lopez | 28⁄1 | Front‑end Arkansas Derby rabbit; blazing :46 morning work hints at send‑mission. |
| Pay Billy | J. Sharp / C. Lanerie | 30⁄1 | Local allowance romp; trainer excels spotting longshots in Grade 1s. |
*Consensus of Caesars, DK, FD futures boards May 5; will firm up after draw.
Scratch/Add watch: Only 14 can start. Connections for El Toro and King’s Uproar are gauging entry fees and may still join.
Pace Scenario & Trip Notes
- Caldera projects as the outright speed; Pimlico’s short run‑up to the first turn makes gate burst crucial.
- Sovereignty and Rodriguez can track just off the leader, forcing moderate fractions (≈ :23 ⅘, :47 ⅗)—tough on deep closers.
- That puts pressure on Journalism to stay within five lengths early; he’ll need Ortiz on River Thames to hook Caldera by the far turn.
Takeaway: If the track plays its usual “golden rail” bias, an inside‑drawn stalker is lethal. Watch Friday’s Black‑Eyed Susan splits for clues.
Historical Trends at a Glance
| Stat | Last 20 Runnings |
| Favorite wins | 40 % (8 of 20) |
| Derby → Preakness double | 5 times (most recently Justify ’18) |
| Wire‑to‑wire winners | 6 |
| Avg. $2 exacta payoff | $97.40 |
| Avg. winning Beyer | 101 |
Betting Strategy Starter Pack
- Lock the logical single in small multis – If Sovereignty draws posts 4‑8, he’s an “A” horse in Pick 4s.
- Press value exactas under chalk – Box Sovereignty with Rodriguez & Heart Of Honor; both can track the speed.
- Superfecta bombs – Toss in price horses who relish 1 1/16–1 ⅛ m trips (Gosger, Pay Billy) for third‑/fourth‑slots.
- Shop promos – DraftKings often boosts Preakness exactas; BetMGM may give 25 % live‑odds tokens after $25 pre‑race wager (check app).
Responsible gaming reminder: Triple‑Crown excitement can encourage over‑betting. Set a bankroll cap (e.g. 3 % of monthly discretionary income).
Final Word
The 150th Preakness has the storylines—undefeated Derby champ, powerhouse barns, and a sentimental sesquicentennial vibe. Whether you’re slinging exactas or sipping a Black‑Eyed Susan, do the prep, lock your price, and trust your read. Good luck, and may the horse be with you!
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will.
Vince Lombardi
